Why the most expensive Seed deals are the cheapest | E2299
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Guest Links:
Tomasz Tunguz: https://x.com/ttunguz
Theory Ventures: https://theoryvc.com/
Michael Downing: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaeldowning/
Castalia Capital: https://castalia.capital/
Paige Doherty: https://x.com/paigefinnn
Behind Genius Ventures: https://www.behindgeniusventures.com
Show Links:
Anthropic’s IPO announcement: https://www.anthropic.com/news/confidential-draft-s1-sec
OpenAI’s IPO announcement: https://openai.com/index/openai-submits-confidential-s-1/
Bending Spoons F-1 filing: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2004711/000110465926071170/tm2613674-7_f1.htm
SpaceX IPO filing: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026040364/spaceexplorationtechnologib.htm
Brendan Foody’s post on Sequoia: https://x.com/BrendanFoody/status/2063470286515683759
Claude Fable 5: https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-fable-5-mythos-5
OpenRouter data on Chinese models: https://openrouter.ai/rankings?view=day
Saronic: https://www.saronic.com/
MotherDuck: https://motherduck.com/
Nox Metals: https://noxmetals.co/
Timestamps:
0:00 Tomasz Tunguz, Michael Downing & Paige Doherty join
1:29 The SpaceX IPO and the IPO window
3:44 Plaud: If your work depends on conversations — interviews, meetings, calls — you need a Plaud NotePin. You can check it out at https://Plaud.ai/twist and use code TWIST for 10% off!
5:52 The new bar: 10x growth (not 3x) to raise a great Series A
8:08 Net-new AI budgets
9:08 Squarespace: Turn your idea into a beautiful website! Go to https://www.squarespace.com/twist for a free trial. When you're ready to launch, use offer code TWIST to save 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain.
10:31 How some founders are outgrowing venture capital
11:06 The power pendulum swings back to founders
12:08 SpaceX vs. OpenAI vs. Anthropic: Which IPO is most enticing?
19:15 Deel - Founders scale faster on Deel. Set up payroll for any country in minutes, hire anyone anywhere, get visas handled fast, and get back to building. Visit https://deel.com/twist to learn more.
25:29 Tokens-for-equity, GPU-hours-for-equity & the financialization of compute
27:57 Founders airing VC dirty laundry (napping VCs included)
29:18 Netsuite - The business landscape is very chaotic right now. That's why you need NetSuite, by Oracle. Get the free business guide Demystifying AI at https://Netsuite.com/TWiST
36:00 Claude Fable 5 first impressions: pricing, benchmarks & orchestration
45:04 Where value accrues: application layer vs. models vs. private data
59:28 Nationalization of AI labs: Bernie Sanders, Sam Altman & Trump agree?!
1:00:47 Portfolio spotlights: Saronic, MotherDuck, and Nox Metals
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